Our Policy Briefs and Papers

Policy Briefs

  • The decarbonization of the steel sector hinges on closing the green premium — the cost gap between conventional and hydrogen-based production that currently constrains project bankability and limits first-mover investment. This analysis examines the techno-economic drivers of that premium, evaluates cost trajectories under different hydrogen price and electrolyzer scenarios, and identifies the policy instruments and financing mechanisms needed to make low-carbon steel commercially competitive across the region's existing DRI infrastructure.

  • Decarbonization Pathways Program

  • Green steel · Hydrogen DRI · CBAM · Green premium · Blended finance · Carbon Contracts for Difference · Steel decarbonization · Industrial policy · MENA energy transition · Project bankability

  • Fatin Reşat Durukan

  • As carbon pricing increasingly shapes access to EU markets, the MENA region’s iron and steel sector faces a new strategic reality. Strong trade ties with Europe and uneven emissions intensity heighten exposure, but this does not automatically translate into disadvantage. The region enters this phase with important structural strengths, including leadership in direct reduced iron production and viable pathways toward lower-carbon steelmaking. A balanced response—combining engagement, proactive adaptation, mitigation, and dialogue—can help manage near-term risks while positioning the sector for long-term competitiveness in emerging green industrial value chains.

  • Decarbonization Pathways Program

  • CBAM · Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism · EU ETS · Carbon leakage · Iron and steel · MENA trade exposure · Carbon pricing · DRI-EAF · Green industrialization · Climate diplomacy

  • Fadi Al-Noaimi

  • China–Gulf relations are shifting from transactional energy trade to a strategic partnership grounded in shared decarbonization and diversification goals. Expanding cooperation in renewables, green manufacturing, and industrial development reflects deeper structural changes in both economies. Yet growing technological dependence, CBAM-related trade pressures, and US–China rivalry pose vulnerabilities that require deliberate, regionally coordinated management.

  • Climate Diplomacy Program

  • China-Gulf relations · Belt and Road Initiative · Gulf energy transition · Solar PV manufacturing · Economic diversification · Supply chain sovereignty · Green hydrogen · CBAM compliance · US-China competition · Vision 2030

  • Jemima Oakey

Policy Papers

  • The MENA region has a unique chance to lead the global green iron trade, building on its dominant Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production, abundant low-cost renewables, and central geography. With the EU’s CBAM set to reshape market dynamics, success will depend on credible certification, integrated value chains, and hydrogen ramp-up, alongside diversified export corridors to Europe and Asia that secure both competitiveness and long-term industrial growth.

  • Decarbonization Pathways Program

  • Green iron trade · Hot Briquetted Iron · DRI-EAF · Green steel supply chain · CBAM compliance · DR-grade pellets · Green hydrogen steelmaking · Steel decarbonization · MENA industrial policy · Green iron corridors

  • Fadi Al-Noaimi