Our Briefs and Reports

Reports

Climate Risks in the MENA Region:
A Systems-Level Assessment

  • Intensifying drought, escalating heat extremes, and increasing flood risk are reshaping the Middle East and North Africa. Drawing on IPCC data, regional climate projections, and documented case studies, this report traces how climate impacts cascade across water systems, energy infrastructure, food security, and political stability — and what this means for the region's development trajectory.

  • Climate Resilience Program

  • Climate adaptation · Water scarcity · Extreme heat · Flood risk · Food security · Energy transition · Climate migration · Economic fragility · Geopolitical risk · MENA climate policy

  • Karim Elgendy

  • April 2026

Policy Papers

Leveraging Green Trade: The MENA Region’s Opportunity in the Global Green Iron and Steel Market

  • The MENA region has a unique chance to lead the global green iron trade, building on its dominant Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production, abundant low-cost renewables, and central geography. With the EU’s CBAM set to reshape market dynamics, success will depend on credible certification, integrated value chains, and hydrogen ramp-up, alongside diversified export corridors to Europe and Asia that secure both competitiveness and long-term industrial growth.

  • Decarbonization Pathways Program

  • Green iron trade · Hot Briquetted Iron · DRI-EAF · Green steel supply chain · CBAM compliance · DR-grade pellets · Green hydrogen steelmaking · Steel decarbonization · MENA industrial policy · Green iron corridors

  • Fadi Al-Noaimi

  • September 2025

In the Shadow of the Iran War: How MENA Importers and China Can Accelerate the Energy Transition

  • The Iran War has exposed how deeply Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia depend on imported fossil fuels, driving price shocks, fiscal strain, and renewed urgency around energy security. At the same time, China's renewable manufacturing sector faces mounting overcapacity in search of external markets. These pressures create a strategic opening: cheap Chinese solar can accelerate MENA's energy transition while easing China's surplus. Success will depend on bankable power-purchase agreements, grid investment, and streamlined regulation to turn this alignment into lasting energy sovereignty.

  • Diplomacy, Geopolitics and Cooperation

  • Energy security · Renewable energy transition · Solar PV supply chains · China–MENA trade · Energy import dependence · Grid modernization · Battery storage · Green industrialization · Energy sovereignty · MENA energy policy

  • Jemima Oakey, Lamia Boumazgour

  • June 2026

Policy Briefs

  • Global demand for critical minerals is accelerating, while refining capacity remains almost entirely concentrated in China. Saudi Arabia alone holds an estimated USD 2.5 trillion in reserves and has announced USD 100 billion in mining investments — but without refining capacity, the region risks exporting raw materials while the value stays elsewhere. Water scarcity, emissions governance, and the China partnership question will determine whether MENA's mineral ambitions translate into lasting economic sovereignty.

  • Climate Diplomacy Program

  • Critical minerals · Mineral refining · Rare earth elements · Energy transition · MENA mining · Saudi Arabia minerals · China supply chains · Resource nationalism · Water scarcity · Green mining · Supply chain diversification · China-MENA cooperation · Downstream processing · GCC minerals strategy · Economic sovereignty

  • Jemima Oakey

  • March 2026

Securing Critical Minerals for the Middle East’s
Energy Transition

  • The decarbonization of the steel sector hinges on closing the green premium — the cost gap between conventional and hydrogen-based production that currently constrains project bankability and limits first-mover investment. This analysis examines the techno-economic drivers of that premium, evaluates cost trajectories under different hydrogen price and electrolyzer scenarios, and identifies the policy instruments and financing mechanisms needed to make low-carbon steel commercially competitive across the region's existing DRI infrastructure.

  • Decarbonization Pathways Program

  • Green steel · Hydrogen DRI · CBAM · Green premium · Blended finance · Carbon Contracts for Difference · Steel decarbonization · Industrial policy · MENA energy transition · Project bankability

  • Fatin Reşat Durukan

  • February 2026

The Price of Going Green: Policy Pathways to Competitive Low-Carbon Iron and Steel in the MENA Region

Navigating CBAM: Towards a Balanced Readiness for MENA’S Iron and Steel Sector

  • As carbon pricing increasingly shapes access to EU markets, the MENA region’s iron and steel sector faces a new strategic reality. Strong trade ties with Europe and uneven emissions intensity heighten exposure, but this does not automatically translate into disadvantage. The region enters this phase with important structural strengths, including leadership in direct reduced iron production and viable pathways toward lower-carbon steelmaking. A balanced response—combining engagement, proactive adaptation, mitigation, and dialogue—can help manage near-term risks while positioning the sector for long-term competitiveness in emerging green industrial value chains.

  • Decarbonization Pathways Program

  • CBAM · Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism · EU ETS · Carbon leakage · Iron and steel · MENA trade exposure · Carbon pricing · DRI-EAF · Green industrialization · Climate diplomacy

  • Fadi Al-Noaimi

  • January 2026

From Transactions to Strategic Partnerships:
China’s Expanding Green Engagement in Gulf States

  • China–Gulf relations are shifting from transactional energy trade to a strategic partnership grounded in shared decarbonization and diversification goals. Expanding cooperation in renewables, green manufacturing, and industrial development reflects deeper structural changes in both economies. Yet growing technological dependence, CBAM-related trade pressures, and US–China rivalry pose vulnerabilities that require deliberate, regionally coordinated management.

  • Climate Diplomacy Program

  • China-Gulf relations · Belt and Road Initiative · Gulf energy transition · Solar PV manufacturing · Economic diversification · Supply chain sovereignty · Green hydrogen · CBAM compliance · US-China competition · Vision 2030

  • Jemima Oakey

  • November 2025

Analysis

The Future of Agriculture in the MENA Region:
Navigating Food Security and Climate Resilience

  • The MENA region faces a deepening agricultural crisis, shaped by decades of declining water availability, near-total food import dependency, and accelerating cropland degradation. With climate change intensifying pressure on already-strained food systems, the region's ability to balance short-term food security imperatives with long-term environmental sustainability will depend on structural reform, smarter water governance, and a shift away from cereal-intensive farming toward more resilient and diversified agricultural models.

  • Climate Resilience Program

  • Food security · Climate resilience · MENA development policy · Food systems · Rural livelihoods · Climate adaptation · Agricultural GDP decline · Net food importers · Water scarcity · Freshwater withdrawals · Cropland degradation · GCC food import dependency · Agricultural labour force · Land degradation · Irrigation water use · Agricultural finance flows · Food-water-energy nexus · Agricultural subsidies

  • Jamila El Mir

  • May 18 2026