A Policy Paper by the Carboun Institute’s
China-MENA Cooperation Program

Powering the Future:
Securing Critical Minerals for the Middle East’s
Energy Transition

Author: Jemima Oakey

Critical minerals are foundational to the renewable energy transition, electric vehicle (EV) deployment, battery storage, and increasingly, defense technologies. Global demand is accelerating, while extraction and refining supply chains remain highly concentrated in a limited number of countries, with refining capacity almost entirely dominated by China. In response to Chinese export controls, United States (US) securitization narratives, and supply chain diversification strategies, many states are seeking to reduce dependence on single suppliers. 

For the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), this presents both a strategic opportunity and a policy challenge. This brief examines how to convert emerging mineral endowments into long-term economic and energy security without creating new external dependencies or exacerbating pre-existing domestic environmental challenges. 

Several MENA states have identified potentially significant critical mineral reserves, announced large-scale investments in mining, and pursued international partnerships to secure access to foreign mineral reserves. However, most projects remain at pre-exploratory or planning stages, limiting their near-term supply impact. The region’s central challenge is not in extraction alone, but in downstream integration. The region currently lacks the technical expertise, skills base, water resources, and regulatory frameworks required for large-scale refining. Without targeted intervention, MENA risks replicating existing global asymmetries—exporting raw materials while remaining dependent on external refining capacity. 

China’s dominance in refining is reinforced by its leadership in renewable energy and EV manufacturing. As the world’s largest developer and producer of solar panels, batteries, and EVs, China also drives global mineral demand for the energy sector. Its energy storage alone accounts for over 90% of global battery production, supported by extensive state-backed financing. Despite efforts by other economies to compete, refining and manufacturing are likely to remain concentrated in China in the medium term. 

In parallel, mining and refining are energy and water-intensive activities, posing particular challenges in the world’s most water-scarce region. Refining operations require careful environmental governance. Rising air pollution, dust exposure, and biodiversity risks further threaten the long-term sustainability of mining expansion. At the same time, growing demand from global defense sectors and AI data centers, along with rising resource nationalism, are securitizing supply chains. Stockpiling strategies and geopolitical competition risk diverting minerals away from the renewable energy transition and distorting prices, with disproportionate impacts on lower-income MENA states. 

MENA states are unlikely to replicate China’s full-spectrum mineral dominance. However, they can target competitive niches, including low-emissions mining, selective refining, and integration with regional renewable energy manufacturing. Yet there is a convergence of interests; China requires secure, diversified mineral inputs to sustain industrial growth, while MENA states seek to monetize mineral assets and move up global value chains beyond hydrocarbons. 

Structured partnerships with China, including time-bound expertise leasing, joint ventures, and workforce training, could help build domestic capacity while managing dependency risks. In parallel, this presents China with a lucrative business opportunity to capitalize on its expertise and technology dominance and export these at commercially competitive rates to MENA states.  

Success will depend on aligning mineral strategy with water security, environmental protection, and long-term industrial goals. Managed effectively, critical minerals development can support economic diversification, strengthen energy security and mineral sovereignty, and position the region as an alternative supplier to global mineral markets.