Green Industrialization:
An Opportunity for MENA Economies

By Karim Elgendy 

2 September 2025

The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) stand at a crossroads. For decades, the region’s economies have been anchored in hydrocarbons. Yet a new growth engine is emerging: industrialization powered by cheap green electrons (renewable electricity) and cheap green molecules (such as green hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic fuels). 

With some of the best solar and wind resources in the world, MENA countries can generate low-cost clean energy at scale. Harnessing that energy to support the growth of industries such as steel, aluminum, fertilizers, clean fuels, and advanced manufacturing offers a once-in-a-generation chance to diversify economies, capture global markets, and create millions of jobs.

Shifting from Extraction to Production

MENA countries face mounting climate and economic pressures. More than 60% of the region’s population already lives under severe water stress, and rising temperatures threaten agriculture, tourism, and public health. At the same time, the global energy system is shifting. Major economies, including the European Union, Japan, and China, have committed to net-zero pathways, creating rising demand for low-carbon industrial inputs.

The MENA region is uniquely positioned to respond. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, the region could obtain a quarter of its total primary energy supply from renewables by 2050, while the renewables share could exceed 50% in the power sector. Recent projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have produced some of the world’s cheapest solar electricity. These cheap green electrons enable the production of hydrogen and its derivatives at globally competitive costs.

Crucially, the region also has substantial industrial bases. The region accounts for 45% of global production of direct reduced iron (DRI), a technology that can be adapted to run on hydrogen instead of natural gas. Aluminum smelters and petrochemical complexes in the Gulf and fertilizer producers in Morocco and Egypt are all energy-intensive and export-oriented, and could gain from switching to low-cost green energy inputs.

Natural Assets, Strategic Position

Three structural advantages position MENA countries to lead this transition:

1. Exceptional Renewable Resources. MENA receives roughly a quarter of the world’s solar energy, and about 75% of its land is suitable for utility-scale wind farms. Solar irradiation in the Sahara, Arabian Peninsula, and Levantine deserts is among the highest globally, and onshore wind corridors in Morocco, Oman, and Egypt rank in the world’s top tier. This resource endowment allows the region to generate clean electricity and hydrogen at costs that competitors in Europe and Asia cannot match. For instance, a recent solar farm project was won in Saudi Arabia at a record low cost of 1 cent per kilowatt-hour, far below the global average.

2. Industrial Infrastructure: The MENA region’s ports and industrial zones are already integrated into global trade. The Suez Canal handles about 12% of world trade and nearly 30% of container traffic, connecting Asia and Europe. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port is the busiest in the Middle East and among the top ten globally, serving as a major transshipment hub. Morocco’s Tangier Med Port Complex is the largest in Africa and the Mediterranean and maintains direct maritime connections to over 180 ports across 70 countries globally.

3. Financial Firepower: The region is home to sovereign wealth funds that collectively manage more than $5 trillion in assets, concentrated largely in the Gulf through institutions such as Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and ADQ, and the Qatar Investment Authority. These funds are now deploying capital to diversify economies and back emerging low-carbon industries. Their ability to make long-term, patient investments allows them to de-risk first-mover projects in hydrogen, green steel, and advanced manufacturing while crowding in global investors.

These advantages enable the region’s transition not just to a clean energy exporter, but to a hub for green industrial value chains attracting international investment, and further integrating the MENA region into global supply chains.

Emirates Steel Arkan's steelmaking complex in Abu Dhabi. Photo: Beno Saradzic

From Molecules to Markets: New Industrial Pathway

Cheap green electrons and molecules open opportunities across multiple sectors.

Steel and Metals: With almost half of global DRI production already located in the MENA region, it is poised to supply green iron and steel to global markets. Hydrogen-based DRI, coupled with renewable-powered electric arc furnaces, can cut emissions by up to 95% compared to blast furnaces. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will raise costs for carbon-intensive steel, making green alternatives attractive. Aluminum is another candidate, given that smelters in the Gulf region — currently powered mainly by electricity from natural gas — can transition to renewable electricity, producing green aluminum sought by automakers and packaging companies.

Chemicals and Fertilizers: Green hydrogen can be combined with nitrogen to produce green ammonia, a key fertilizer feedstock and an emerging shipping fuel. Morocco's OCP, the world’s largest phosphate exporter, has launched a USD 13 billion Green Investment Program to power all its industrial facilities with 100% green energy and integrate green hydrogen and green ammonia into its fertilizer production. Saudi Aramco and SABIC have also begun piloting low-carbon ammonia exports. As global agriculture and shipping demand cleaner inputs, MENA producers can capture new markets.

Synthetic Fuels: Combining green hydrogen with captured CO₂ enables the production of synthetic aviation fuels (e-SAF) and e-methanol. Airlines currently face regulatory mandates to increase SAF use, especially in Europe. At the same time, shipping companies are exploring the use of e-methanol as a low-carbon alternative, with Maersk already deploying dual-fuel methanol container ships and ordering over 100 more. The proximity of the MENA region to busy shipping lanes offers it a natural advantage in this sector.

Advanced Manufacturing: Green industrialization opportunities extend beyond energy-intensive sectors. Egypt is establishing a solar panel assembly line while Morocco is emerging as an electric vehicle and battery hub, hosting major automotive manufacturers. Localizing production of electrolyzers, turbines, and storage technologies would deepen value capture and help the region climb the value chain, but doing so at scale might prove difficult without significant investment incentives.

Water and Agriculture: Cheap renewable energy also makes large-scale desalination economically viable, thus supporting the struggling agriculture sector. In Morocco, the Agadir desalination plant already produces 125,000 m³/day, split between drinking water for 1.6 million people and irrigation for about 12,000 hectares of farmland. This could enable the development of agro-industrial clusters that use fertilizers derived from green ammonia and desalinated irrigation water for food production. 

Industrial Policy as Social Policy

The economic potential of green industrialization in the region is substantial. A joint study by the International Labour Organization and Islamic Development Bank estimates that ambitious green industrial policies could create up to 10 million jobs in MENA by 2050 and raise regional GDP by 7.2%. These jobs span the construction of renewable plants, which alone could create 2 million jobs, the operation of electrolysis and industrial facilities, the manufacturing of components, and downstream industries such as steel and fertilizers.

Crucially, these jobs are higher-skilled forms of employment. They also offer a pathway for the region’s large youth population, which faces high unemployment rates. With targeted training and just transition programs, workers in fossil-dependent sectors can be re-skilled for roles in solar construction, hydrogen plant operations, or advanced manufacturing.

By leveraging cheap green electrons and molecules, the region can transform its role in the global economy from a resource exporter to a hub of low-carbon industrial production.

Charting a Roadmap for Green Industrialization

Unlocking the full potential of green industrialization hinges on swift and coordinated action, with several priority areas emerging for policymakers and investors.

1. Integrating climate and industrial strategies. National plans should explicitly link renewable deployment to industrial goals. Targets for hydrogen or solar should be matched with goals for steel, fertilizer, or battery manufacturing. This ensures that cheap electrons and molecules translate into economic value, not just power exports.

2. De-risking investment in emerging sectors. Governments can use sovereign wealth funds, green bonds, and public-private partnerships to lower risks for first movers in hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic fuels. Long-term off-take contracts and clear regulatory frameworks can attract both domestic and international capital.

3. Building enabling infrastructure. Regional grids, hydrogen pipelines, and export terminals will be essential to scale. Coordinated investment in ports and certification systems for green products can cement the MENA region as a trusted supplier and trade partner.

4. Strengthening regional cooperation. Regional countries share some resources and markets. Coordinated standards, cross-border infrastructure, and joint ventures can create economies of scale. Regional cooperation also enhances credibility with global buyers seeking reliable, large-scale suppliers.

Grasping the Moment Before It Slips Away

Green industrialization offers the MENA region a pathway to sustainable prosperity. By leveraging cheap green electrons and molecules, the region can transform its role in the global economy from a resource exporter to a hub of low-carbon industrial production. The benefits of doing so cannot be overstated: millions of skilled jobs, higher GDP, diversified exports, and improved water and food security.

In July, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted that “we are in the dawn of a new energy era. An era where cheap, clean, abundant energy powers a world rich in economic opportunity.” This green industrialization strategy can position the MENA region at the heart of the world’s transition to a low-carbon economy. Yet the window to seize this moment is narrow, with global competitors already in motion. Coordinated policy, strategic investment, and deep regional cooperation are essential—so that MENA’s natural advantages become a shared legacy of sustainable growth and prosperity.

Karim Elgendy is the Executive Director of the Carboun Institute