Karim Elgendy

Long a crossroads of trade, culture, and conflict, the Mediterranean is at a pivotal moment in its energy story. The region is poised for rapid expansion of its renewable energy, Accelerating the shift to renewables and tripling capacity across the region is more than a climate imperative; it is also a strategic opportunity to strengthen energy security and build cooperation among neighbors. In late 2024, nine Mediterranean countries pledged to make the region a renewable energy hub, aligning with the COP28 global goal to triple renewable capacity by 2030. If pursued collectively, this effort could turn this ancient sea from an arena of competition into a space of collaboration.

The New Energy Ties That Bind

The potential is immense. Across the Mediterranean basin, renewable capacity already stood at nearly 300 gigawatts in 2022, approximately 43 percent of total generation. The Eastern Mediterranean has the potential to generate 144 percent of its projected 2050 electricity demand from solar and wind power alone. Yet the challenge is related to the pace of transition. Meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal would require reaching one terawatt (TW) by 2030, a 3.6-fold increase that means installing roughly 97 GW of new capacity every year until the end of the decade. Achieving this target will depend not just on national action but on building cross-border links so that clean power can move freely between markets.

Those links are beginning to take shape. The Italy-Tunisia ELMED/TUNITA project - a 600 MW link backed by the European Union and World Bank - is scheduled for completion by 2027. The Great Sea Interconnector, a subsea cable linking Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, is expected to carry up to 2 GW of power by 2030. The Greece–Egypt Green Energy Interconnector will bring 3 GW of mainly solar and wind electricity from North Africa into the European grid. Across the Strait of Gibraltar, the Morocco-Spain interconnectors - two high-voltage cables with a combined capacity of 1.4 GW - already provide a tangible demonstration of their value. On the 29 April 2024, when Spain faced partial blackouts, emergency imports from Morocco helped stabilize the grid and restore supply within hours. That moment underscored how interconnections can turn potential crises into stories of resilience.

From Rivalry to Reciprocity

The economic case for this transformation is equally compelling. Renewable energy is now the cheapest source of new power in much of the Mediterranean, with solar electricity in Egypt costing as little as $0.02 per kilowatt-hour. Expanding generation would create millions of jobs, stimulate manufacturing in northern countries, and position southern ones as clean power exporters. Morocco’s exports to Spain and Tunisia’s forthcoming connection to Italy are early examples of how North Africa can supply affordable, low-carbon electricity to Europe. Expanded solar and wind power could also underpin large-scale green hydrogen production for export to northern european and other global markets.

Energy security, would be strengthened by an interconnected Mediterranean grid. Many countries rely heavily on imported fossil fuels or a narrow set of suppliers. A more integrated system would allow instantaneous electricity flows across borders to cover supply shortfalls or demand spikes. North African solar peaks could help meet Europe’s daytime demand, while European wind surpluses could fill gaps in the south. By fostering this kind of mutual dependence on shared infrastructure, the region would reduce incentives for conflict and gain a measure of stability that fossil fuel competition has often undermined.

When Power Becomes Peace

Diplomatically, the energy transition offers a way to turn the Mediterranean’s history of resource disputes into a platform for sustained cooperation. Unlike oil and gas, which are finite, volatile in price, and geographically concentrated in ways that have often fueled geopolitical rivalries, sun and wind are abundant and widely distributed across the basin. This shared abundance lowers the stakes of competition and creates room for joint ventures, coordinated infrastructure planning, and cross-border power trading arrangements that deliver tangible benefits to all parties.

Because renewable energy systems depend on interconnected grids and constant operational coordination, they inherently foster regular contact between governments, utilities, and regulators, creating channels of communication that can remain open even when political relations are strained. The Morocco–Spain electricity trade is a case in point: despite periods of diplomatic friction, power continued to flow, providing a form of quiet diplomacy that is grounded in mutual interest. In this way, energy interdependence can serve as both an incentive for cooperation and a deterrent against escalation, since the costs of disrupting shared infrastructure are immediate and mutual. Over time, shared renewable infrastructure could function as a new “regional commons,” where the logic of cooperation steadily outweighs that of confrontation.

Finance can be as important as technology in driving this transformation, not only in funding the smart grids, storage systems, and interconnectors needed to integrate renewable energy, but also in creating shared financial stakes that bind countries together. Multilateral investment funds with co-ownership from multiple Mediterranean states could embed economic interdependence into the region’s clean energy backbone. In such a model, countries with historical tensions would have a mutual interest in safeguarding shared assets, from a cross-border solar complex to a subsea cable. Blended finance structures, offering preferential terms for projects with cross-border components, would make cooperation more profitable than isolation, thus turning capital markets into an ally of regional stability.

The Choice Before Us

The stakes are high. Tripling renewable energy capacity in the Mediterranean by 2030 is both a climate necessity and a strategic opportunity. If the region’s leaders commit to building interconnections, aligning policies, and mobilizing investment, they can create a clean energy network that strengthens economies, improves resilience, and fosters stability. The alternative - fragmented systems competing for dwindling fossil resources - risks perpetuating the cycles of tension that have long defined the region. 

The Mediterranean has always been a shared space, bound by geography but too often divided by politics. The energy transition offers a chance to change that narrative.

Karim elgendy is the Executive Director of the Carboun Institute.