Marie Tyl

“Electricity is the mother of all problems in Lebanon … the size of the problem is beginning to pose a danger to public finances” – M. Chatah, Lebanese former Finance Minister.

Electricite du Liban (EDL), the state’s electric utility, operates seven thermal plants fueled by gasoil, fuel oil, and natural gas. It also runs six hydro-electric power plants. The national utility enjoys a quasi-monopoly over the power sector in Lebanon. However, for reasons ranging from inefficient operation and management to a freeze-of-tariffs government policy, the electricity company has to rely on significant subsidies from the Ministry of Finance to cover its deficit. During 2011, for example, approximately USD 1.57 billion were transferred from the state treasury to EDL, 93% of which was allocated to purchase oil. This subsidy constitutes one fifth of total public expenses, and according to a 2009 social impact analysis by the World Bank “is putting macroeconomic stability at risk”.

From Financing Investments to Subsidizing Electricity Production

Yet, government transfers to EDL are not a new phenomenon. At the end of the civil war, EDL faced significant investment requirements to rebuild the severely damaged electricity infrastructure and continue expanding production capacity as demand rose with economic recovery. The Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR – in charge of post-war reconstruction efforts in Lebanon) allocated approximately USD 1.14 billion to the electricity sector between 1992 and 2009, which corresponded to 15% of the total value of contracts signed by the CDR during that period of time.

However, results did not match financial commitment due to political and institutional friction slowing necessary reforms in the sector. EDL could not maintain a sound financial balance mainly due to insufficient revenues, which remained largely inferior to required investments. In 1994, for example, electricity was sold at one sixteenth of its production cost. And while electricity tariff saw one increase in the mid-nineties in an effort to provide EDL with additional revenues, no other tariff adjustments were approved by government as any increase in the electricity cost could not be easily justified when power supply remained highly unreliable. This left EDL with tariffs based on a price of crude oil of around 25 USD/barrel while Brent Crude was exchanged at an average of 111 USD/bbl in 2011. With tariffs unable to cover the fuel source bill, let alone infrastructure depreciation and other operating costs, government subsidies to cover the gap between  expenditures and  revenues appeared to be the only way to ensure continued power generation.

Figure 1 – Ministry of Finance Transfers to EDL (in USD Billion). Source: Ministry of Finance

Fiscal Vulnerability and Exposure to Fluctuations in Oil Prices

As oil markets significantly pushed prices upwards over the past decade, EDL deficits were set on an ever-growing trend, which reached an all-time record in July 2008 with the Brent Crude selling at 133 USD per barrel. And as the fuel mix of power generation in Lebanon remained dependent on oil products (imported mainly from Algeria and Kuwait), government subsidies increased dramatically during the 2000’s as EDL remained incapable of paying its ever increasing oil purchase bills.  As a result EDL’s contribution to the oil bill continued to drop, falling from  19% in 2006 to 9% in 2011, requiring increasing subsidies from the Treasury.

The close correlation between the Ministry of Finance transfers to EDL and oil prices are clearly illustrated on figure 2. The year 2008 in particular represents an extreme example of the growing vulnerability of government finances to oil prices. As oil prices jumped from the average 2007 level of approximately 72 USD per barrel to 97 USD per barrel in 2008, government subsidies to EDL jumped by 49% percent. Transfers remained high during 2008 and 2009, because of the lagged payment of purchased oil.

Figure 2 – Correlation of transfers (blue) to EDL with oil prices (green) (index = 100 in 2001). Source: US Energy Information Administration and Electricite Du Liban

Rising Debt

All in all, dependence on fuel imports, oil markets volatility, as well as EDL’s limited resources to finance its growing oil imports bill, have collectively put significant pressures on the financial resources of the Lebanese government. Subsidies to EDL now represent Lebanon’s third largest public expenditure according to the Ministry of Finance and amounted to a staggering 23% of the government budget in 2011. In fact, EDL’s financing requirements drove up Lebanon’s national debt.  Between 1992 and 2006, transfers from the Ministry of Finance to EDL amounted to USD 3.8 billion, which grows to USD 7.5 billion when interest payments are factored in. And while the entire debt of the Government of Lebanon cannot be entirely attributed to the situation of the power sector, it represents a major ongoing burden at a a time when Lebanon remains in a very delicate situation with national debt representing 150- 185% of GDP over the past few years, one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios worldwide.

Significant Opportunity Costs and Inefficient Subsidies

Lebanon’s Ministry of Finance transfers to EDL also carry a significant opportunity cost. Subsidizing EDL operations absorbs a large share of the government’s financial resources that are spent on importing oil products and natural gas. More importantly, these subsidies are hardly associated with  job creation, and have almost no positive spill-over effect on the rest of the economy.

Furthermore, while one could argue that the freeze of tariffs drove down the cost of electricity in real terms , it must be noted that this subsidy has been proven to be highly inefficient. Research examining EDL’s tariff structure points out that smallest consumers and most vulnerable households do not really benefit from the scheme and that the tariff structure does not impose significantly higher costs to the largest well-off consumers.

Both direct costs – government spending and debt creation – and indirect opportunity costs make the subsidies to EDL a heavy burden for Lebanon. To put it in perspective, government subsidies to the power sector represented USD 375 per person in 2009, compared to around USD 100 to 110 per person allocated to health expenditures. The scale and inefficiency of this policy stress the urgent need for a comprehensive policy reform for the energy sector, and a political will to change the status quo.

Marie Tyl is a student at Sciences Po Paris and Universite Paris 6, currently completing a joint Bachelor degree in sciences and social sciences. Marie is on an exchange program at the American University of Beirut, and has recently joined Carboun as a Student Ambassador.

To discuss this article or the LebanON 24/7 project please join Carboun’s vibrant discussion group on Linkedin. For news and updates on sustainability from around the region, join Carboun’s Facebook page or follow its Twitter feed.

Karim Elgendy and Wissam Yassine

Developing transportation networks and facilitating access and mobility are major constituents of the economic development of any country or region. Yet transportation also poses great economic and environmental challenges as a major energy consumer and a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.

In the Middle East, the transportation sector is challenged on both fronts. On one hand, its underdeveloped and inefficient networks continue to hinder economic development. In addition, the transportation sector represents a major consumer of energy in the region and a primary contributor to carbon emissions. In 2008, the transportation sector was estimated to be responsible for 31% of the region’s total energy use – a relatively high proportion compared to the global average of 27% – while the road sub-sector alone was responsible for 18% of energy use – compared to 14% globally.

Drivers and trends of transportation in the Middle East.

Over the last few decades, the Middle East and North Africa region witnessed rapid population growth, with its population swelling from 97 million in 1960 to 351 million in 2009. The region also witnessed a process of rapid urbanization during the same period. While only 30% of the region’s population lived in cities and towns  in 1960 -compared to 32% globally- the urban proportion of the Middle East has almost doubled to 57% and exceeded the world average which currently stands at 50%.

These trends have exerted great pressures on the transportation networks of the region’s cities and town, resulting in high traffic volumes and congestion. Policy responses to these pressures have typically been directed towards upgrading and expanding road networks, which encouraged further urbanization and personal vehicle use, that in turn led to additional traffic volumes and congestion. In effect, road upgrading policies have helped compound the challenges it sought to resolve, creating a negative and costly feedback loop .

Public spending into road networks has also come at the expense of public transportation networks, which remained underfunded, inefficient, and unreliable. This, together with the region-wide policy of subsidizing car fuels – which is effectively a subsidy on private vehicle ownership – have further entrenched the dominance of private vehicle transportation over public transportation.

These developments also had energy and environmental costs. In the nine years between 1999 and 2008, total energy use in transportation almost doubled , while the share of transportation in Middle East’s energy use grew from 23% to 31%.

The region’s high proportion of energy use in transportation can be partly attributed to the lack of fuel efficiency standards and regulations, and the existence of an aging vehicle fleet in most of region (except for GCC countries) which, according to the Arab Environment Green Economy report, have an average age of 15 years. Yet this very fact has also contributed to the region having the highest transport sector greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP of any other region in the world, standing at 150 tons of CO2e per million dollar of GDP according to World Bank estimates.

Towards Sustainable Transportation for the region

Sustainable transport is best defined as a system that allows the basic access and development needs to be met safely, promises equity for successive generations, operates fairly and efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, limits emissions and waste, and is affordable.

Thus for a region such as the Middle East to achieve a true sustainable development, its first step should be to break out of the current road-dominated transportation system, and to adopt a multi-modal, efficient, and reliable public transportation network.

Judging by the number of public transportation projects that are currently in the works across the GCC countries, one can confidently suggest that this change in vision seems to be taking place in one sub-region at least. From GCC-wide projects such as the GCC railway (in planning) through national projects such as Etihad Rail in the UAE (Phase 1 under construction), to local projects such as Haramain Rail and Mecca Holy Sites Metro in Saudi Arabia (both under construction), the GCC appears to be in the beginnings of a major change to its transportation system.

But plans for public transportation networks are not limited to the GCC. Across the Middle East and North Africa there are currently 28,200 kilometers of proposed and planned rail projects – almost doubling the existing network size- and approximately 2,000 kilometers of proposed and planned Metro, light rail, and monorail projects -a tenfold increase over the existing size.

And while these projects vary in their degree of development and the likelihood of being implemented, the rising regional need by a population expected to to grow to 700 million by 2050, and by urbanization levels expected to reach 67% by 2030, places an added sense of urgency to the need to implement these projects at local, national, and regional levels.

Dubai as a Case Study

At the local level, Dubai is arguably home to the most advanced public transportation system in the region, and is home to the world’s longest fully automated metro system. Since its operation in 2009 the metro has been a success, carrying 250,00 people daily within two years of operation. The Dubai Metro has also become a node for an integrated multi-modal system, with a network of feeder buses serving local areas around the main metro stations, and bicycle parking spaces currently being fitted into the metro stations to encourage cycling to and from the stations.

Figure 1: Dubai Metro. Source: Dubai Road and Transportation Authority (RTA).

In addition, Dubai has developed an extensive network of bus routes covering even the most remote areas of the city. According to the Road and Transportation Authority (RTA), 1500 buses operate in Dubai at peak times, running on 79 different routes and carrying 310,000 passengers daily. This multi-modal network was accompanied by the development of an online public information tool named “Wojhati”, which helps users plan their journeys ahead of time across all public transportation networks and using real time information.

The development of public transportation systems was accompanied by measures such as road tolls, designed to increase the cost of personal vehicle use relative to public transport alternatives.  In 2007, Dubai was the first city in the region to introduce toll gate systems on some of its major roads.

However, despite these initiatives by the authorities in Dubai, the RTA estimates that only 11% of Dubai residents used public transportation in 2010. A review of resons behind such a low rate of utilization revealed that many city residents were reluctant to use public transportation as long as it is not considerably cheaper than personal transportation. With energy subsidies maintaining petrol (gasoline) and diesel in the UAE artificially cheap, this economic balance is unlikely to happen soon.

Personal transportation should therefore be discouraged by removing subsidies on fuel prices and introducing intelligent toll zones, if Dubai’s state-of-the-art infrastructure is to be fully utilized. Other opportunities for improving road transportation also exist through community planning and controlling traffic demand at the community level. Making sure that needed goods and services are catered for locally can go a long way in significantly reducing traffic demand.

In dealing with many of the region’s common transportation challenges, the Dubai experience has a lot to teach other cities of the region.  A future of sustainable transport in the region can be created by investing in a modern public transport systems and by carefully enacting the right policies to ensure a smooth transition away from private transportation.

Karim Elgendy is a senior architect and sustainability consultant based in London. He is also the Founder and Coordinator of the Carboun Initiative.

Wissam Yassine is a senior sustainability engineer and a Masters in Sustainability candidate at Harvard University Extension School. Wissam is also the UAE National Coordinator for the Carboun initiative.

To discuss this article or the Road to Doha project, please join Carboun’s vibrant discussion group on Linkedin. For news and updates on sustainability from around the region, join Carboun’s Facebook page or follow its Twitter feed.

Guy El Khoury

From Electricity Concessions to National Grid

1885 is generally considered as the birth year of the electricity network in Lebanon. It is the year where the first concession for a network of gas lighting was established in Beirut when the city was still under Ottoman rule. Over the following decades, the development of the electricity infrastructure across the country was carried out by similar independent regional concessions.

Although the electricity network progressively expanded to cover major cities of the country, this scheme of infrastructure development failed to benefit all citizens and regions equally. Industrial development for example was only concentrated in areas where concessions provided reliable supply (Beirut suburbs and Chekka in the North).

It is only in the early 1960s that the improvement of access to electricity became a government priority. In fact, electrification was a key pillar of nation-building efforts spearheaded by president Fouad Chehab (1958 – 1964), who saw extending the electricity network to the entire Lebanese territory and unifying tariff schemes across the country as a guarantee for reliable and equal access to electricity for all citizens.

All regional concessions were thus merged into a single government entity which later morphed into a national utility (now known as Electricite du Liban or EDL) – and was granted a quasi-monopoly on power generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Lebanon. The success of this enterprise largely contributed to strengthening the position of the government, demonstrating its ability to carry out large-scale projects and its commitment to provide public services to all citizens. Of the 1,100 villages that were not connected to the network in 1962 -out of total of 1,600 villages- only 50 villages were still unconnected to the grid a decade later, in 1974.

Strong economic growth in the 1960s and in the early 1970s and changes in consumer habits -with the widespread adoption of appliances for example-  drove electricity demand upwards, and despite efforts to build additional generation capacity, the reliability of electricity supply was soon degraded.

The Civil War and Chronic Power Shortages

These efforts were entirely undermined when the civil war hit the country in 1975, which led to the destruction of a large share of the infrastructure. In addition, massive internal displacements significantly changed load profiles, thus mis-aligning the regional configuration of the grid, and theft became widespread. The government was essentially paralyzed and could no longer enforce law on all national territories nor ensure sufficient revenues are put to maintain the grid and generation capacity.

Power shortages became the norm and people adapted; customers started using car batteries to supply a TV and a neon light, with batteries being recharged during hours of electricity supply. As power shortages started lasting longer and longer, people shifted to private electricity generators -either small units using gasoline or larger units using fuel oil- to maintain a minimum supply of electricity in homes, schools, and hospitals. Private diesel generators started spreading across the country despite their high costs, and a secondary electricity network developed in parallel to the Electricite du Liban national network. This arrangement allowed customers the flexibility of getting electricity supply from the national grid during hours of supply while relying on their private generators during hours of shortages.

When the civil war ended in 1991, the massive adoption of diesel generators across Lebanon was a clear indication that the issue of power shortages would not be solved overnight. In fact, private investors who bought larger generating units started selling subscriptions to customers – the comfortable margins realized by these businesses and the opportunity for customers to benefit from economies of scale fostered the development of this model across cities and villages. And despite government efforts in the 1990s and 2000’s to reform the sector and invest in infrastructure, the situation did not fundamentally change and consecutive cabinets have failed to effectively reform the sector. A “24 hours per day and 7 days per week” supply of electricity remained an unattainable target.

The enduring situation of power shortages over the past few decades has largely undermined the government’s authority, encouraged inequity between households and allowed for the development of unregulated monopolistic structures of private electricity suppliers.

Public and private electricity connections near a Beirut building. Copyright: Karim Elgendy

Hybrid Legacy Becomes the Norm

As a national utility that was presented as the symbol of progress, EDL was in effect substituted by a network of private diesel generators. The parallel network of private  generators which was first seen as a temporary solution to a deficient supply of electricity, gradually turned into a formalized system and became part of the country’s energy landscape.

The government lost its monopoly on electricity production, and this hybrid system became the symbol of the public adminstration’s lack of control on the state’s affairs. Power shortages are often used in the media as a case in point demonstration of the government’s weaknesses and its inability to provide public service, while diesel generators are frequently cited to support the argument that private sector initiatives can compensate for the weaknesses of governments.

In addition, the lack of adequate energy regulations and law enforcement has encouraged private diesel generators to develop monopolistic structures in the neighborhoods, villages, and cities in which they operate. Since one neighborhood is only served by one supplier, households willing to subscribe to a private diesel generator became subject to a monopoly of their local private supplier, and usually have no leverage to negotiate prices.

Regional and Social Inequity

To complicate matters further, Lebanon’s regions do not get equal supply from EDL -although this is technically feasible to rectify. A 2008 survey by the World Bank demonstrates that the capital Beirut gets an average of 21 hours of supply per day while the Bekaa Valley  is barely allocated sufficient electricity to provide 12 hours of supply.

This disparity in supply quality by EDL together with the unreliability of private diesel generators, and variation in tariffs,  creates a fragment energy landscape similar to the one prevalent before the large reform of the sector in the 1960s – a situation where access to electricity is not guaranteed at the same levels and at the same tariffs across the country.

This situation is also characterized by inequity between households of different social classes, with the poorest households being the most affected. The World Bank’s 2008 survey found that affordability was the primary reason for those who did not recourse to private diesel generators – roughly a quarter of survey sample. Richer households can also afford higher quality service, with private diesel generators subscriptions  typically offered at different tiers.  In order to keep using electricity at the same level as that of EDL supply hours, higher tiers of private generator subscription are required. Households who cannot afford the more expensive higher tier subscription must cut their energy consumption outside of EDL supply hours. This could mean having to turn off home appliances and even lights.

In addition to its impact on economic growth, the current situation of chronic power shortages and fragmented infrastructure has undermined the government’s credibility and exacerbated regional disparities and social inequity. Yet despite the magnitude of these challenges, it was only recently that the government was encouraged to tackle the issue effectively and adopted a plan to reform the power sector (in 2010) with the objective of reaching a 24/7 supply of electricity by 2014.

It is hoped that this plan to ensure a reliable and continuous national electricity supply is successful, and that it forms the basis for a resilient and effective energy landscape that empowers a sustainable economic development for Lebanon.

Guy El Khoury is a management consultant based in Beirut with a focus on energy practice in the Middle East region. He can be reached at Guy [ a t ] Carboun [ d o t ] com.

To discuss this article or the LebanON 24/7 project, please join Carboun’s vibrant discussion group on Linkedin. For news and updates on sustainability from around the region, join Carboun’s Facebook page or follow its Twitter feed.

Wissam Yassine

UPDATED – Climate change refers to the current changes in the Earth’s climate patterns due to the increase in greenhouse gases emitted by human activities. The driving force behind this pattern is an increase in the Earth’s surface and water temperature. In fact, over the last 130 years, the global average temperature of the planet rose by 0.8 °C.  However, the impacts of this temperature increase on climate patterns in different regions varied widely (Figure 1).

National scientific bodies in all major countries agree that the cause behind global warming and climate change is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and growing livestock. Climate models have been created to forecast the expected increase in the average global temperatures over the coming years based on current and expected emission levels. These models show that the global average temperatures are expected to rise by up to 6 °C by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise as they have in recent decades.

Figure 1: Global surface temperature change according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies data. Source: Dr. Peter Gleick, Forbes Blogs

This increase in global temperature will have far-reaching impacts, including an increase in sea level which will threaten coastal and low lying areas, disruption of precipitation patterns around the world, and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and heat waves. These impacts will lead to further downstream consequences including species extinction, loss of ecosystems, and the loss of small island states.

This article will shed some light on the science behind climate change and its expected impacts. The article will also highlight global and local action taken to mitigate climate change. Future features in the Road to Doha project will focus on climate change in the context of the Middle East and North Africa, and will detail the specific impacts on the region, its role is mitigating climate change, and adaptation opportunities.

The science of Climate Change

Following years of research, the entire body of climate scientists is almost in complete agreement that global climate change is happening, that it is caused by the increase concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and that human induced (or anthropogenic) emissions are the largest contributor to this phenomenon.

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are a group of gases that are characterized by their ability to trap radiation as it attempts to leave the earth’s atmosphere. The main GHGs in the Earth’s atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Normally, these gases play a positive role in regulating the surface temperature of the planet and making it livable. It is estimated that without these gases our earth would, on average, be 33 °C cooler (Figure 2). However, the increased concentration of these gases caused mainly by burning of fossil fuels is amplifying the natural warming effect and leading to an observed increase in global temperature.

Figure 2: The Greenhouse effect by the National Academy of Science. Source: the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Greenhouse gases vary in their capacity to absorb energy in the atmosphere, also known as their global warming potential (GWP). While one molecule of carbon dioxide (CO2), the predominant of all GHGs, has a global warming potential of 1 GWP, other gases have a much higher global warming potential.  A molecule of methane, example, has a GWP of 72 over 20 years, while a molecule of nitrous oxide has a GWP of 289 over the same period. Yet given the enormous quantities of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere, its overall warming contribution is far greater than any other GHG. As a result, most estimates of GHGs are aggregated and expressed as carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e ) to ease comparisons and put numbers in perspective. It is estimated that the concentration of carbon dioxide equivalents in the atmosphere have increased from their pre-industrial average of 280 particles per million (ppm) to more than 390 ppm today.

Based on this historic trend and on climate models, scientists have confirmed that the extent of future increases in earth’s surface temperature would be dependent on the rate of human-induced emissions, which, in turn, is dependent on the size of the global population and its carbon footprint. The most comprehensive forecast of climate change and global warming to date is the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC models, based on various emissions scenarios and feedback mechanisms,  predicts that in the lowest emissions scenario for 2100 (Scenario B1 in Figure 3) the global surface temperatures will rise between 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) This scenario assumes  “a convergent world with the same global population as in the A1 storyline but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in materials intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies.”

Figure 3. Surface temperature increase scenarios. Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 , Chapter 10, Figure 10.26

The IPCC models also predict an increase of global surface temperature between 2.4 and 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for the highest emissions scenario (Scenario A1F1 in Figure 3) which assumes “a very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.”

With both the worst case and the best case scenarios forecasting a temperature increase, scientists have confirmed that some form of climate change is inevitable. They argued, however, that we need to limit the increase in global surface temperature to 2°C to avoid the worst of climate change. To ensure this, the world needs to collectively halve its 1990 emissions levels by the year 2050. This target appears hard to achieve given that total GHGs emissions have continued to increase since 1990. In fact GHGs emissions have increased in 2010 by a record amount that they surpassed even the worst case scenario of the IPCC report. This trend is currently not showing any signs of a slowdown, let alone reversal. In addition, the cumulative impact of current national pledges to cut carbon emissions fall short of stopping an increase in GHG emissions by 2050, let alone cutting it by any factor (Figure 4).

Figure 4: GHG emissions scenarios. Source: Climate Action Tracker

Furthermore, while climate change is a global challenge that requires a global response, total GHG emissions are not produced uniformly around the world, with 85% of emissions produced by the 20 largest emitting countries. This disparity in responsibility has inevitably led to friction between nations that are most responsible for climate change and those which are most affected by its impacts.

To complicate things further, nations also vary greatly in their per capita emissions. China, for example, is the world’s largest emitter in absolute terms since it overtook the United States in 2006. However, on a per capita basis, China ranks much lower than the US which has one of the highest per capita emissions rates. In the Middle East, this variation is also evident. Qatar for example leads the region -and the world- with 53.47 tons of CO₂e per capita per year compared to a world’s average per capita emissions of just above 5 tons. Morocco on the other hand emits a mere 1.5 tons CO₂e per capita in the same period.  Halving the world’s GHG emissions requires achieving a world average per capita carbon footprint of approximately 2 tons CO₂e.

Impacts of Climate Change

For one to develop a strategy for adapting to climate change, it’s important to understand the complex and intertwining impacts of global warming.

It is estimated that increases in sea temperature will cause thermal expansion of the world’s oceans and seas. This expansion, coupled with melted land-based ice, will lead to a rise in sea levels. It is estimated that sea levels have already risen by 0.17 meters over the last century and are expected to rise further by 0.18 to 0.59 meters by the year 2100. A sea level rise of such magnitude is expected to put many cities and islands under water and to displace millions around the world.

Climate change is also expected to contribute to an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, flood, droughts and heavy participation events. Many of these events are already being observed around the world. Events such as the heat waves in Russia, extreme cooling in Europe, hurricanes in the US, floods in Pakistan, and draught in the African horn have been linked to the impacts of climate change.

Climate change is also expected to lead to adverse ecological and socio-economic impacts such as reduced agricultural production and food security, risks to human health, and reduced biodiversity. Changes to participation patterns will lead to severe water shortage in some areas and heavy floods in others. Rising temperatures will also increase the risk of diseases such as malaria as more areas become prone to such diseases.

It must be said that the exact extent of these impacts cannot be accurately forecasted and will eventually depend on the actual level of warming, the interactions between the various climate systems, and the responsiveness of ecosystems to such relatively fast climate changes (Figure 5). Yet, even the currently observed impacts are serious enough to warrant a global action to mitigate climate change and avoid irreversible large scale disruptions to the Earth’s natural systems.

Figure 5: Interconnection of climate system, human activities, and climate change impacts. Source: United Nations Environmental Program

The politics of Climate Change

International efforts to mitigate climate change started at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The Earth Summit resulted in the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which now has 195 parties. The objective of the UNFCCC is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Since then, major breakthroughs in climate negotiations took place and major commitments were made, the most significant of which is the Kyoto protocol which was negotiated in 1997 and entered into force in 2005 (figure 6). Recognizing the wide difference in historical GHG emissions across countries, parties to the Kyoto protocol agreed that they had “common but differentiated responsibilities” towards reducing their GHG emissions.  In that spirit, developed countries agreed to reduce their emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012, the first commitment period under the Kyoto protocol.

Figure 6: Timeline showing major milestones in international climate change negotiations. Source: the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

The Kyoto protocol was a major step forward; however, the 37 developed countries with binding reduction targets under the Kyoto protocol represented only 25% of the world’s global emissions. It was clear that the world needed a new treaty that included developing countries such China, India, and Brazil, whose shares of global emissions grew significantly since the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, as well as major players such as the United States which was not party to the Kyoto Protocol.

In 2005, parties to the Kyoto protocol together with the United States agreed in Montreal to start negotiating a post-2012 emissions reduction commitment with the aim of reaching an agreement in Copenhagen in 2009. However, the outcome of Copenhagen was a true disappointment as the United States succeeded in steering the negotiations away from a legally binding emissions reduction commitment. The alternative was the Copenhagen Accord, which calls on developed countries to commit to “economy-wide emissions targets for 2020”. The targets were discretionary and non-binding, which is why the 15th Conference of Parties (COP 15) in Copenhagen was largely seen as a step backwards in climate negotiations.

However, the notion of a binding emissions reduction treaty that covers all countries – developed and developing – was revived two years later in Durban’s COP 17. The 2011 conference ended a very intense and politically polarized round of negotiations with countries agreeing on reaching a legally binding agreement by 2015 which would take effect after 2020. The outcome of Durban’s COP 17 places great expectations on COP 18 in Doha which will host the first round of negotiations dedicated toward reaching the 2015 agreement.

With such high hopes for event, it is our hope that the Road to Doha project by Carboun would help highlight the significance of hosting these negotiations in the region, in addition to helping build awareness of climate change impacts on the Middle East and the challenges they pose for the region.

Wissam Yassine is a Senior Sustainability Engineer based in Dubai and a Masters in Sustainability candidate at Harvard University Extension School. He can be contacted at Wissam [at] Carboun [dot] com

To discuss this article or the Road to Doha project, please join Carboun’s vibrant discussion group on Linkedin. For news and updates on sustainability from around the region, join Carboun’s Facebook page or follow its Twitter feed.

The notions of sustainable design and energy efficiency first entered global consciousness following the energy shortages of the 1970s and 1980s. Influenced by ideas of energy independence, many designers in Europe and North America sought ideas and strategies that could help create energy-efficient buildings and cities. As they searched for design solutions, some researched the environmentally responsive elements of traditional architecture, while others developed new solutions that employ modern technologies and high performance materials.

As the energy crisis subsided, the building industry in North America returned to business as usual, allowing its European counterpart – which emphasized technological solutions – to take a lead. But with the revival of global interest in sustainability – this time driven by both environmental and energy concerns – the dormant dialogue between the two approaches to sustainable design returned to play a role in shaping the global sustainability agenda. Oscillating between advocates of passive design and proponents of technological solutions, this dialogue continues to enrich the discourse on the future of sustainable design and development

National Commercial Bank in Jeddah (left). consists of a triangular 27-storey office tower juxtaposed with a six-storey, 400-car circular garage. The verticality of the bank tower is interrupted by three triangular courtyards ‘chiseled’ into the building's facade. The office windows are oriented towards these courtyards with an inward orientation typical of Islamic traditional design. This provides the interiors with daylight but prevents them from overheating. Copyrights: Wolgfang Hoyt/Esto. Shaded pathways within Masdar Institute for Science and Technology (right) Copyrights: Nigel Young

Regional Drivers of Sustainability: Past and Present

In the Middle East however, this dialogue took on a form that reflected the region’s climatic and socio-economic context. Like other hot and dry climates, many parts of the Middle East have a heritage of traditional architecture that featured environmentally responsive cooling strategies, a heritage that was largely ignored during the region’s colonial period. As the region transitioned into independent nation states, its post-colonial period was characterized by a strong sense of national identity and an urgent need for nation building. But this desire for development

was undermined by the lack of local industrial and technological bases. In this challenging socio-economic context, the limited discourse on sustainable design inevitably adopted the notion of appropriate technology – a common notion at the time which suggested modern complex technologies should not be used if simpler technologies would suffice – and saw traditional architecture as an essential source of inspiration.

As notions of climate change and sustainability became part of global discourse in the 1990s, they slowly found their way to the region’s national agendas. But the current forces behind the region’s sustainability agendas are different from those of the post- colonial period and are also distinct from the European and North American forces which emphasize the need to reduce carbon emissions and conserve resources while maintaing economic development and human welfare.

Instead, the education, discourse and practice of sustainability in the Middle East are driven by a convergence of pressing issues that collectively demand a more efficient and sustainable use of resources. These drivers are: high domestic energy use, diminishing water resources, a desire to demonstrate environmental stewardship and commercial development pressures. Prime amongst these forces is domestic energy use. While the region historically enjoyed an abundance of cheap subsidized energy – especially in resource-rich countries – the rapid growth of its urban centers and its domestic consumption has resulted in increasing strains on its economies and energy infrastructures. Saudi Arabia, for example is estimated to use a third of its oil production to satisfy domestic energy needs, a ratio that is expected to rise to approximately 50% by 2030, if growing consumption patterns do not change. These rising, and even wasteful, consumption patterns are also compounded with the prospects of a peak in oil production and a strong public resistance to any reduction in energy subsidies. Thus, faced with limited policy options to reverse the consumption patterns that their subsidies have created and to avoid long term economic crises, regional policy-makers turned to energy use in buildings, given its high cost-effectiveness, and encouraged energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings.

Equally important to energy use is water scarcity. While the region has the lowest renewable freshwater resources per capita and many of its countries rely on non-renewable aquifers or on energy-intensive desalination for their water supply, its wasteful water consumption patterns do not reflect this scarcity or the high cost of desalination. Egypt for example – which for decades enjoyed the use of two thirds of the Nile’s water – is expected to face water shortages by 2017. Abu Dhabi on the other hand, which has almost no fresh water resources, uses more than half of its domestic energy consumption in water desalination. As water crises looms, Middle East nations are beginning to reconsider their water consumption patterns.

The desire to demonstrate environmental stewardship by some governments and organizations comes next as a driver for sustainable design in the region. Governments seeking to diversify their economies, encourage sustainable development, or even gain political legitimacy, are increasingly embarking on large scale projects that adopt sustainable design. Similarly, commercially-driven developers keen on competing in the global market are increasingly experimenting with buildings that can be marketed as being green.

As might be expected, as the regional impetus for sustainability changed over the years, the dominant approaches to sustainable design have also changed to reflect this impetus. This resulted in the development of three approaches to sustainable design in the region: a revivalist approach, a progressive approach, and a hybrid approach.

Lycee Charles de Gaulle, Damascus, comprises two rows of plastered white buildings, each with two floors of classrooms. Movable awnings shade the open spaces between the buildings. The external walls consist of two leaves with an air cavity in between, designed to exploit the thermal storage capacity of the construction. The roofs are also made up of multiple leaves and are aerated, in order to avoid overheating of the rooms. The architects decided against mechanical ventilation of the classrooms. Instead the solar chimneys generate a thermal lift which ‘sucks’ the exhaust air out of the classrooms. Cool intake air ventilates through the windows in the ground floor rooms, and through miniature earth ducts. At night the cool external air circulates through the classrooms, reducing the internal temperatures in preparation for the next day. Copyrights: Adrià Goula Sardà

The Revivalist Approach

As noted above, the initial discourse and practice of sustainable design in the Middle East revolved around strategies, techniques, and elements adopted from traditional architecture.
This revivalist approach to sustainable design dominated the architectural discourse in education and practice and for many years appropriated all notions of sustainable and energy-efficient design.

Much of this revivalist dominance is attributed to the work of the late Egyptian architect, Hassan Fathy (1900-1989). Fathy – together with his disciples – developed an approach to sustainable design which relied on the use of local, low-impact materials and traditional environmentally-responsive design strategies such as shading, natural ventilation, evaporative cooling, thermal mass and microclimatic elements (such as courtyards). As a result of their work – and in spite of the disparity in their focus on energy efficiency and their ability to apply these strategies successfully – they were collectively credited with reviving long forgotten traditional knowledge.

Their approach to energy-efficient design, however, was characterized with a number of flaws that proved detrimental to their success. These flaws include the formulaic use of traditional design elements; an exclusive use of appropriate technology that bordered on rejection of modern technology; a prescriptive use of low comfort levels; and a ‘master architect’ approach to design that failed to seek essential interdisciplinary collaboration. Thus, in spite of the revivalists’ claims that their designs were as environmentally-responsive as traditional architecture – and are therefore inherently energy efficient, the performance of their built projects – such as the New Bariz Village Market in Egypt’s western desert and the Kafr Elgouna Resort in Hurghada – failed to live up to the ideals they espoused. So with the advent of the global sustainability movement, the role of the revivalists in practice diminished, giving way to the emergence of two new approaches, a progressive approach and a hybrid approach.

The progressive approach

Practitioners of the progressive approach seek to use the latest technologies to achieve energy-efficient buildings, a design approach that is diametrically opposite to the revivalist approach.

Progressives appear to be more concerned with technology transfer than appropriate technology and have almost no interest in lessons learned from local traditional design. To achieve their energy targets, their designs rely on shading and technologies such as high-performance glazing, efficient cooling systems, and integrated renewable energy system. As such, they are largely dependent on foreign industrial bases to supply solutions for local and regional design challenges. Their subscription to narrow comfort standards has also minimized their passive design options by encouraging ‘sealed-envelope’ designs and by excluding strategies such as natural ventilation.

A limited number of buildings that belong to this approach emerged over the last 20 years around the Gulf region. Most prominent amongst which is the World Trade Center tower in Bahrain (by Atkins), which incorporates three large wind turbines, and the Al Faisaliah Tower in Riyadh (by Foster and Partners), which features high performance facades and complex and efficient cooling systems. Affiliated with this approach is also the National Commercial Bank in Jeddah (by SOM) and the plethora of unbuilt schemes that emerged in the years preceding the recent economic downturn. These unbuilt schemes, such as the DIFC Lighthouse Tower (by Atkins) and Burj Al-Taqa in Dubai (by Gerber Architekten), have all promised great energy performance through a mix of efficient cooling and lighting systems, and on-site renewable energy generation. The emergence of this approach coincided with a predominant lack of understanding of sustainable design amongst local design professionals. This lack of sustainability knowledge prevented them from taking a leading role in the design process in spite of their local knowledge, which created a vacuum for foreign – and especially European – designers to fill. As a result, projects that belong to this approach often appeared to emulate the European approach to energy-efficient design. Not only do their designs emphasize building envelope and efficient active systems, but they also appear to adopt design strategies such as extensive glazing that were developed for colder climates and even subscribe to European high-tech aesthetics.

This imported nature of the progressive approach raises concerns not only regarding its appropriateness to the region’s climate, but also regarding the general sustainability of reliance on imported technologies and the practicality of maintaining imported systems.

The Hybrid Approach

As its name indicates, the hybrid approach represents an attempt to combine the revivalist and progressive approaches. As a fairly new approach that first appeared in the early years of the twenty first century in the UAE, Egypt and Jordan, it promises to be the most balanced of all three approaches. Its advocates claim to combine principles learned from traditional architecture with modern technologies to reduce the environmental impact of development while maintaining acceptable comfort levels. Practitioners of the hybrid approach often combine the use of passive ventilation and cooling strategies with the need to maintain thermal comfort throughout the year.
Buildings that belong to this category, for example, balance the use of shading and thermal mass with envelope insulation, and balance natural ventilation – using elements such as wind towers and solar chimneys – with the use of efficient cooling systems, as is the case in the King Abdullah University for Science and Technology (by HOK), the new campus of the American University in Cairo (by Community Design Collaborative, Sasaki, and others) and the Masdar Institute for Science and Technology (by Foster and Partners). Water use has also been given its due attention in this approach with water conservation measures becoming an integral part of its design strategies.

Advocates of this approach are also distinct in their attitude towards of the role of renewable energy in design. Unlike the revivalists, who generally steer away from renewables, and the progressives, who often place renewables at the heart of their sustainability strategies, the hybrid approach practitioners have adopted a balanced approach towards renewables. Armed with the now-common knowledge of the relative cost effectiveness of energy efficiency measures, they consider renewables as a last resort measure to be used after exhausting the use of passive design strategies and efficient active systems.

Such notions of combining passive strategies with efficient systems and renewables and using adaptive comfort models may suggest that this approach merely represents a local manifestation of the direction in which global sustainable design is currently heading. However, the local design solutions produced by this approach in response to its climate and socio-economic context asserts its distinctly regional nature. In addition, the hybrid nature of this approach has often necessitated a collaboration between local and foreign designers to combine local knowledge with global expertise. This dialogue occasionally facilitates knowledge transfer and supports the development of a generation of local design professionals that understand sustainable design in their local context.

Sustainability Diagram of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology near Jeddah showing 1. High performance roof 2. Solar tower 3. Passive ventilation 4. High performance glazing 5. Integrated shading 6. Local evaporation 7. Passively cooled courtyards 8. Filtered daylight. KAUST is s the largest certified LEED Platinum building complex worldwide. The buildings, which stand in close proximity next to one another, share a common roof, shading each other while also providing shade to the open spaces between the buildings. Two wind towers use solar radia- tion to improve the air circulation in the circulation spines between the buildings. A photovoltaic and a solar thermal facility on the roofs provides nearly 8 % of the energy required by the university. A further 70% of energy is covered by green electricity. Copyrights: HOK

The Regional Players

As varied as the approaches to sustainability are, as is the nature of the stakeholders pushing its agenda forward. This variety in players reflects the political and socio-economic realities of the countries in which they operate. In countries where there is a relatively strong civil society such as Jordan and Lebanon, sustainability has been championed by NGOs and professional associations, who work at grassroots level to create awareness, build organizations such as green building councils and empower professionals through education. In countries with strong central bureaucracies, on the other hand, players tend to emerge from within the government’s research and educational institutions. Egypt represents a prime example of this category, where its green building council forms part of a government body and its efforts to promote sustainability focus on developing policy and enforcement measure such as energy efficiency standards and rating systems.

Between these two extremes lies a variety of conditions. These conditions include professionals establishing green building councils in parallel to governmental efforts to develop energy codes, as is the case in Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. They also include combinations of government-backed and commercially-backed organizations as is the case in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

In the Qatari case, the government funded Green Building Council acts as an advocate for sustainability while the commercially-funded, Gulf Organization for Research and Development develops and promotes a green building rating system. Similarly, the Estidama initiative in Abu Dhabi was created by the municipal Urban Planning Council to develop sustainable design guides and a mandatory rating system. Simultaneously, the government supported the creation of commercial entities such as the Masdar Initiative, which acts as a catalyst for sustainable development through its investments in renewable energy and pilot projects. These pilot projects include the master plan for Masdar City and a number of key buildings planned for its centre.

But while the government-backed Masdar Initiative is a regional leader, it is certainly not alone in investing in sustainable design. In recent years, several institutions have invested in creating excellent examples of sustainable design. These examples include higher education campuses such a the American university in Cairo, the American University in Beirut and the King Abdullah University for Science and Technology. They also include schools such as Lycée Charles De Gaulle in Damascus and a small number of civic buildings, residential developments and private residences.

While the list above may suggest that sustainable design has spread into many sectors around the region, it also suggests that its manifestations remain limited not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively to high profile clients for whom financial return is not the only concern. This is evident in the lack of examples from profit-driven developments such as commercial offices and hospitality facilities, or from cost sensitive projects such as medium to low cost housing.

Notwithstanding the recent interest in social sustainability around the Middle East and despite research efforts to combine sustainable design with low cost housing in Egypt, not one project has yet emerged that addresses large scale housing or successfully integrates sustainable design within a local economic and social sustainability agenda. These observations raise questions on the viability of sustainable design in the region and suggests that there are challenges preventing it from becoming part of mainstream industry and design practice.

Regional Challenges

As one might expect, the region’s environmental challenges are at the top of this list of challenges. Since moderating indoor environments effectively in this challenging climate requires a substantial reduction in heat and solar gain and an optimization of cooling, sustainable design here often requires a combination of passive and active cooling strategies to achieve acceptable comfort levels. This combination often creates ‘radical’ designs that pose additional programmatic and cost challenges, and occasionally produce design forms that are unwelcome by some developers and occupants in the region. Integrating a mixed- mode ventilation and cooling strategy, for example, has associated capital costs that might not be appropriate for every project’s funding model. Similarly, while it is an established fact that in order to reduce solar heat gain it is preferable to limit the use of glazing, many developers and occupants are unwilling to accept any design form that does not feature excessive glazing. As a result, it has become common for design teams to abandon their ambitious sustainability aspirations during the design process, occasionally resigning themselves to the use of standard mechanical systems.

There are also economical challenges to sustainable design, with energy subsidies that act as a disincentive for energy efficiency and a construction industry that is reluctant to adopt sustainability standards due to its concerns about supply chain changes and increased capital costs. Challenges also exist within the design process. Confusion amongst local designers on which sustainable design approach to adopt, coupled with a lack of region-specific knowledge in architecture education, and consequently amongst local design professionals, has prevented local designers from taking a leading role in the sustainable design process.
But while these challenges may appear daunting, the varied efforts taking place in the region may indicate that the tide is turning – albeit slowly – towards sustainable design in the Middle East. An increasing collaboration with foreign architects, coupled with a recent interest in sustainable design amongst young professionals, indicate that knowledge-related challenges are likely to be overcome in the short to medium term.

Similarly, as the region continues developing the hybrid approach to design, and as its industry continues streamlining its practices, adopting energy efficiency standards and creating new supply chains for sustainable materials, additional capital costs are likely to diminish, paving the way for the savings from reduced energy and water use to act as financial incentives. Finally, as the region’s current state of political flux stabilizes, it is hoped that its states would finds their steps towards sustainable development policy, accelerating the pace of change, and ultimately creating cleaner and greener cities for the region and a more sustainable future for its people.

Karim Elgendy is an architect and a sustainable design consultant based in London. He can be contacted at: Karim [at] Carboun [dot] com . This article was originally published in the English and German editions of DETAIL Green magazine , Issue 2-2011, under the title ‘Sustainability in the Desert’

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